Thesis

Romain Fillon will present his thesis entitled “Incertitudes climatiques”, at 3pm in the Indochine Pavilion of CIRED's Jardin d'agronomie tropical René-Dumont, on December 9th, 2024. He was supervised by Vincent Martinet (PSAE) and Céline Guivarch (CIRED).

Abstract:

In the first chapter, co-authored with Dr. Nicolas Taconet (CIRED & PIK) and Pr. Céline Guivarch (CIRED), we show that introducing risk aversion over time significantly increases the social cost of carbon (SCC) in the presence of catastrophic tipping risk, in comparison with standard social choice criteria that assume the social planner is risk-neutral with respect to intertemporal risk.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Pr. Guivarch (CIRED), we decompose the climate module of economic models to analyse and quantify how the dynamic interactions between global climate risk and climate subsystems affect global climate policy and the regional management of these subsystems. We apply our theoretical framework to the controversial fate of the Amazon rainforest.

In the third chapter, co-authored with Dr. Manuel Linsenmeier (Princeton University, HMEI) and Pr. Gernot Wagner (Columbia University, GSB), we quantify the extent to which the spatial and temporal aggregation of temperature data in climate impact projections might obscure scientific uncertainties between climate projections and underestimate future climate damages.

In the fourth chapter, I quantify the impact of biophysical channels (albedo, evapotranspiration, roughness) on the distribution and aggregate impacts of climate change on welfare along the Shared Concentration Pathway SSP2-4.5 at a global scale and at 1° resolution. These channels are endogenous to regional economic activities due to land use changes from agriculture and urbanization, and they interact with adaptation strategies such as migration, structural change and changes in trade patterns.