Seminars

Monday, January 13th 2025

Romain Fillon (PSAE) will present "The Biophysical Channels of Climate Impacts".

Abstract:

How does regional economic activity shape regional climate impacts? Land use and land cover (LULC) change with economic activity, affecting regional climate through biophysical channels like albedo. These regional feedbacks are often overlooked in quantitative spatial models, which focus on global carbon effects. By incorporating this biophysical feedback, I find notable welfare implications for adaptation and mitigation, as it alters temperature impacts and interacts with regional adaptation. Using a dynamic-spatial model at a global 1° grid along ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenario SSP2-4.5, I estimate the welfare consequences of climate change, with agents that adapt through migration, structural change and trade. I interact intra-annual climate projections with model-consistent non-linear damage patterns on amenities and sectoral productivities. Without biophysical impacts, almost all locations experience negative welfare changes: there are no benefits to be expected from climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. Biophysical channels account for 2.4% of total welfare impacts, intensifying regressive effects of climate change on lower-income regions.